Well, finally BJP, the ruling party in India, faced the consecutive second drub at state elections. This time in Bihar, one of the most populated states of India.
I agree its easy to do failure analysis rather than projecting the fail in advance. However, let me attempt this in lieu of one of the strategy which I conceptualize (The Toothpaste Strategy), some of the key observations which I noted in BJP “going to election” strategy and probably what led to their debacle (in my view) is as follows:
- Shri Modi unnecessarily participate in state elections. Given the international reputation of this great leader doesn’t require of him to participate in the state elections as such.
- It is true that BJP not took lessons from its fail of Delhi state elections. There also they brought the high stature of Shri Modi in the state elections putting his reputation at stake. Its a dangerous and a loss making strategy.
Sometimes it becomes fairly easy for David to hit Goliath.
One doesn’t need a missile to kill a person. One simply needs a pistol.
- The votes of anti-bjp are consolidating successfully while bjp supporting core voters are somewhere in the range of only 30-40 %.
- Marcus Antony, the famed Roman General, after the murder of Julius Caesar famously said
Even 12 mangy dogs can kill a lion.
Now how the The Toothpaste Strategy plays a significant role here and can well explain the failing of BJP
Traditionally Indian voters have always been lured by multiple parties within states with different ideologies, and attract the voters’ loyalty in name of castes, or other agendas. But its very surprising to note that all these parties except bjp and very few others, overwhelmingly or covertly supported congress at the centre and at the states.
Now consider there are 2 companies X and Y, manufacturing toothpaste. Now X has almost 10 different brands under its umbrella with names a, b, …j while Y has only 2 different brands with names r and s (just to illustrate). Hence for an end user its like having 12 different toothpaste brands on offer irrespective of which are the two parent companies. Here one can take HUL and P&G for understanding purpose. (Disclaimer: this blog has nothing to do with these MNCs).
But here is the big game in play. For a typical Indian voter he is mislead that he or she has 12 different parties to vote for. He chooses accordingly in name of loyalty towards a particular party mostly known for one of the key agendas which the voter is concerned for. Very tactfully these parties launch their candidates under central leadership of X to suit their goal that any of the 10 brands get successful in terms of winning the public taste. But finally their allegiance is to none other than the central leader of theirs which is X.
While the poor Y never understood how it is having only 16% chance vs 84% chance of X given that Y has only 2 brands to lure consumers while X has 10 brands. Poor Y is always under the illusion that it is fighting against X. It never realizes it is basically r and s are fighting against a, b, ….,j. So Y is loosing the battle from last many decades and only comes in power when there is nationwide anti incumbency vote surge.
It is worrying to note that these 10 brands brazenly make a consortium and fight the poor Y and then make fun of Y that they defeated it.
Its basically hilarious that almost every Indian party is against bjp.
When Modi ji don’t speak on petty issues then opposite parties make hue and cry why Modi ji is not speaking. When Modi ji speaks on state issues then opposite parties says that how demeaning Prime Minister of India has become of, that he is speaking on local issues. Its wickedly funny.
I’m not here to support bjp or any other party but my point is that there should be fair game at least.
Or what if if it goes like this that “everything is fair in love and war”
My recommendation, that better is USA electoral system that there are only 2 school of thoughts i.e. Democrats vs Republicans. At least there it is fairly easy for voter to decide where to go.
Not like in India, that voter is going to aap and aap is going to congress from back door.
God Bless India!!